Superforecasting | Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

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Philip Tetlock has tested a large population’s forecasting ability through tests performed over a long period of time. The results show that about 2% is what he calls “Superforecasters” (SF) – these people have a real, measurable ability to assess how high-stakes events are likely to develop three months, six months, a year and a half and a half ahead. Foresight is a product of a way of thinking, gathering information and updating perceptions. This habit can be learned and developed. Read full brief here.

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